Why First Mover Advantage Is Overrated - And What Actually Drives Success

We’ve been sold a myth: that the only way to succeed is to be first. We celebrate pioneers, obsess over originality and believe that if someone else has already done something, we’ve missed our chance.

But what if that thinking is completely wrong?

Adam Grant’s book Originals: How Non - Conformists Change The World dismantles this myth. He highlights a critical distinction between Pioneers - those who take the first step into the unknown - and Settlers - those who refine and perfect what came before. While pioneers are often seen as the visionaries, it’s the settlers who usually win.

The Research: What Actually Drives Success?

If first mover advantage was everything, wouldn’t we see a pattern of early entrants dominating their industries? Yet research tells a different story.

In Grant’s Book, he quotes Bill Gross, founder of IdeaLab, who used his experience of having been involved in starting more than 100 companies, to study what made the difference between success and failure. His findings? The biggest factor in success wasn’t the idea, the team, or even funding, it was timing, which accounted for 42% of the difference between winners and losers.

That means many first movers fail simply because they are too early, the market isn’t ready, the technology isn’t mature, or consumer behaviour hasn’t caught up. Meanwhile, the companies that come later learn from these failures, adapt and execute better.

The Myth of First Mover Advantage: Why We Believe It

So why do we still glorify being first?

1. History Highlights Pioneers – We hear about the first movers who made it (Amazon, Tesla), but we forget the ones who failed (Friendster, Netscape, Kodak). This is survivorship bias - we only remember the winners.

2. It Feels Like a Competitive Edge – People assume being first means no competition. In reality, early entrants often have to do the hardest work, educating the market and building demand from scratch.

3. We Romanticise Disruption – We love stories of rebels who changed the world, but most of them succeeded by refining an existing idea, not inventing a new one.

The Truth: First Movers Often Fail, Fast Followers Win

A study from Harvard Business Review found that first movers have a 47% failure rate, while those that follow succeed eight times more often. Why? Because first movers:

• Face more uncertainty – They’re experimenting without a proven market.

• Bear higher costs – They invest in educating customers, which is expensive.

• Make the biggest mistakes – They learn the hard way what doesn’t work.

Meanwhile, settlers  benefit by:

• Learning from early mistakes – They see what works and improve upon it.

• Entering at the right time – They step in when demand is clear.

• Refining execution – They focus on delivering a better experience rather than reinventing the wheel.

Examples That Prove Execution is Greater Than First Mover Advantage

• Google vs. Yahoo & AltaVista – Google wasn’t the first search engine, but it perfected search.

• Facebook vs. MySpace – MySpace got there first. Facebook got it right.

• Apple’s iPod vs. MP3 Players – Apple didn’t invent digital music. It made it better.

• J.K. Rowling & Harry Potter – Fantasy stories about wizards existed for centuries. She brought a fresh world and depth to storytelling.

What This Means for You: Execution Matters More Than Ideas

Too many people hold back from pursuing their ideas because “someone else already did it.” But if timing, execution and differentiation matter more than being first, then what’s really stopping you?

• You don’t have to be first. You just need to be the best at delivering value when the time is right.

• You’re not behind. If someone else is doing it, that’s proof there’s demand for it.

• Your execution matters more than the idea itself. There’s always room for improvement.

Reframe Your Thinking: Ask Yourself These Questions

1. What’s something you’ve been holding off on because “someone else already did it”?

2. How can you take an existing idea and make it better?

3. Where can you execute more effectively than the pioneers who came before you?

The World needs both Pioneers and Settlers, but execution determines who thrives.

First movers pave the way, but it’s those who refine, adapt and execute with excellence that create lasting impact. Instead of fixating on being first, focus on being ready when the moment is right. That’s where success is built.

What’s one idea you’ve been sitting on because you thought you were too late? Let’s talk in the comments.